Thursday, December 21, 2006

Thailand coup: The return of capital controls

An interesting couple of days, death of Turkmen-bashi, Turkmenistan's president Saparmurad Niazov, and a Thailand's capital control introduction. We shall start with Thailand.

An article on Thailand from Marketwatch - an interesting data and reaction of other Asian markets to the shock.
An article from Goldseek on the Thailand and hot money - An interesting take on the hot money and money supply glut and "the strangest things" countries do to defend themselves. (referenced from bullionvault.com)

And an excerpt from our favourite, Bill Cara's blog:

"...December 19, 2006Cara’s Daytrader Bull Board, Tues., Dec. 19, 2006, 5:55 AM
Alert: major shifts are occurring in global capital markets. The Bank of Thailand has imposed strict new regulations on the Baht in order to try to stabilize the currency. That move has led to a currency crisis in South East Asia.

UPDATE ON THAILAND

Download CS Dec 18 report on Thailand tighting controls.

Download CS Dec 19 Thailand strategy report.

The decision of the Thai National Bank means that investors can only hold and earn interest on 70 percent of Thai bonds per face value of 100 percent, while the remaining 30 percent would be withheld by the central bank, without interest. This move is similar to the negative interest rates the Swiss National Bank imposed in the 80s, in order to discourage foreign money, which at times drives up the value of the domestic currency, making tourism and international export a severe challenge...."

I would add the same controls in Argentina in 2005 and in Chile in the 90's.

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